Saturday, January 3, 2015

NFL Wild Card Picks & Predictions - I Hope My Cowboys and Steelers Win This Week



It's been a long season. Domestic abuse, child abuse, Johnny Manziel - the list goes on and on. Whether your team snagged a bye, barely limped in, or is watching from the couch, we can all agree that it's hilarious that the Eagles missed the playoffs.


Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers


Two teams who are heading in wildly different directions. The Cardinals started 9-1, stole a tiki idol from Hawaiian caves, and desperately held on for dear life. The Panthers on the other hand were completely written off at the start of December and did that thing that terrible teams do every year - got hot at the exact right time and geared up to make a postseason run. Because football is stupid. 

Win or lose, we have to all admit Bruce Arians is a fucking superhero. I don't care if they lose by 40 to Derek Anderson in the freezing rain, what he did to this team is incredible. They lost Daryl Washington for the year because of another drug test failure. Then they lost Darnell Dockett to a torn ACL. Then John Abraham after he suffered his forty seventh concussion. Then Andre Ellington. Then Carson Palmer. Then Drew Stanton. They're starting Ryan Lindley at quarterback and something called Kerwynn Williams at running back and they're in the playoffs. 

Carolina is going to run the ball down Arizona's throat. This isn't a secret. What might be a secret is how bad Arizona's run defense has become in the last couple of months. They are 32nd in the league in yards per carry over the last six weeks. According to my research, that is "not good." Bill Barnwell at Grantland had some interesting stats in his column, but I'm going to paste them here because I know 99% of you hate him and wouldn't click a link to a Grantland article if it would save your life.

"The concern for me, were I a Cardinals fan, would be that rushing quarterbacks have had a field day against the Cardinals during that span. Russell Wilson had 16 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown in his two games against the Cards. Colin Kaepernick and even Alex Smith made plays with their feet. In all, quarterbacks ran the ball 33 times for 267 yards during that five-game stretch, an average of 8.1 yards per carry."

Arizona can not stop the exact offense Carolina is going to run. That puts the game in Ryan Lindley's clumsy hands. He's in a no win situation. He's a third string quarterback. He's not supposed to be good. He's not even good enough to be the primary backup. He's not a good enough quarterback to hold a clipboard and go in the game and take a knee if his team is up by 30. He is never supposed to see the field. If he goes out there on Saturday and plays exactly as well as a third string quarterback should perform, he's going to shoulder the blame for taking a 9-1, 1 seed championship contender down in flames.

The only glimmer of hope is that DeAngelo Williams is ready to play for the Panthers, and nothing screams "Ron Rivera" to me more than giving DWill 20 carries in place of Jonathan Stewart. As funny as this would be, it's Ryan Lindley. On the Road. Panthers fans will enjoy a reversal of the Jake Delhomme playoff game against the Cardinals.



Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Le'Veon Bell is dead. Long live Le'Veon Bell. 

Well, he's not officially dead. But he didn't practice and the Steelers signed Ben Tate, so best case scenario is he's able to suit up and gets maybe five carries. What this means is undrafted rookie free agent Josh Harris will face a Ravens front 7 that is getting Haloti Ngata back. That's.....Ngata good game plan for Shitsburgh. Rack em.

Last time these two teams met at Heinz Field, Roethlisberger threw 6 touchdowns and the Ravens immediately cut half of their defensive backs. Since then they've settled with their starters: Lardarius Webb, who is playing his best football of the year, and practice squad corner Rashaan Melvin, who will watch in sheer terror as Martavis Bryant runs right past him for a 60 yard touchdown. 

Baltimore's offensive line is almost as thin as their secondary and it's responsible for their offense falling off a cliff over the last month. They've scored a combined 53 points in their last 3 games and Flacco's first half against Houston is one of the worst quarterbacking performances I've ever seen, and I watched Chad Hutchinson and Quincy Carter compete for a starting job. 

It's the playoffs. It doesn't matter that Steve Smith has fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season. It doesn't matter that both of Baltimore's tackles are injured. It doesn't matter that they're going to play a division rival in Pittsburgh in what is essentially an ice storm. Joe Flacco will unleash the deep ball and lead this uninspiring team with an MVP calibur performance. Why? 

Because the Steelers needed a running back and didn't sign Ray Rice. It was the perfect option and they went with a guy who's been cut twice this year. For shame. 


Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts


I almost feel bad about immediately writing this game off because of Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis. If you look at both rosters side to side, how many positions are the Colts really better at than the Bengals? Quarterback? One cornerback? Kickers? Despite that, I can't shake the feeling that the Bengals are going to rush AJ Green back from a concussion just to get blown out by that giant yeti in their fourth straight first round loss. Green will jeopardize his future just to watch Vontae Davis jump the route and house an interception in the first 3 minutes. Green will forget his wedding, the birth of his first child, and his father's last words just to give everything he has to this organization to take the field on Sunday and get re-injured when that dipshit throws the ball 3 feet over his head across the middle of the field for the third week in a row. 

The Colts are only better at a couple of positions, but the one that really matters is quarterback. The Colts have once again heaped all of their hopes and dreams on his large, ghoulish shoulders, meaning he has to play perfectly for them to win. If the Bengals win I guarantee there are going to be a bunch of blowhards on Monday talking about Luck not being clutch in the playoffs and completely ignoring the fact that the Colts are a five win team at best without him. As a Cowboys fan, this hypothetical is a very big trigger for me. 

Behind Luck is the worst running back tandem in the league: Dan Herron and Trent Richardson, known affectionately as "Boom or Bust." Combine them with Reggie Wayne, who injured his wiener muscle last week, and Hakeem Nicks, who has the same amount of ligaments in his knee as Hank Hill's dad, and you can basically guarantee that if TY Hilton doesn't have 200 yards and 2 touchdowns they're probably going to lose

Even with that being said, I just can't pick the Bengals. There's nothing around Luck, but the Bengals can not get to the quarterback at all whatsoever. If you give a good quarterback all day to throw, even Coby Fleener can eventually get open. More importantly than that, the day I choose Marvin Lewis to coach a team to a playoff victory is the day Jason Garrett makes the playoffs. 

Lions @ Cowboys


Let's be honest with ourselves, this is the game of the week and it's not even close. No matter what clownball may come, either Tony Romo or Matt Stafford is going to win a playoff game. Come hell or high water one of these quarterbacks is going to succeed in front of the entire country and there's nothing any of us can do to stop it. I'm only 24 years old, so my entire football watching life as far back as I can remember has involved both of these teams ripping defeat from the jaws of victory and finding innovative ways to avoid success year in and year out. 

I can't even make fun of Detroit's history. "Oh they have one playoff win." Guess who it was against. Spoilers, it rhymes with "meowboys." And the last two meetings of these teams have been burned into my psyche like a childhood riddled with physical abuse. I will be on my deathbed, clutching my imaginary son's hand while my big gay life partner gazes into my eyes. And when he asks me what I accomplished in my life, I will envision Bobby Carpenter running that Romo interception back for a touchdown, and I will gasp my final breath.

I can see the Lions' defensive line completely taking over the game like Philadelphia's did on Thanksgiving. I can see Suh breaking Tony Romo with such vivid clarity that it's as if I was watching a movie. I can see Romo ending the regular season with the highest QBR in the league and then throwing 2 interceptions on Sunday. I see it all. I see Brandon Carr in single coverage against Megatron. I see Sterling Moore biting on a Golden Tate double move. I see Joique Bell running all over u-hahahaha ok no I don't that's too far. 

So why not cheer for the Lions? I'm so beaten down at this point that I see the Cowboys losing as a relief. I care more about Romo's legacy than he does, and a quick loss means I can enjoy the playoffs without that pit in my stomach. I care more about the schadenfreude involved than my lifelong team's success, so why not the Lions? Why not cheer for a franchise that's known nothing but failure and hope for them to have the ultimate Cinderella story. The team that's never won a thing wins 3 road games, including a game at Lambeau to get that monkey off their back, and puts an end to the Brady era in the Super Bowl. Why not?

Because fuck em, that's why


0 comments:

Post a Comment