The best weekend of football is here. The seven best teams and also the Panthers will face off to determine who will go on to the conference finals and who will draft in the high 20's and get stuck reaching for a receiver that would have been there in the second round.
Ravens @ Patriots
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| Accurate representation of me when half of the pizza rolls are still cold |
Finally, the feel good story of the year. The Patriots faced a lot of adversity in the beginning of the year, but their Cinderella story continues Saturday - and I don’t see this carriage turning back into a pumpkin any time soon. The Dolphins just hired Tannenbaum, who was the Jets’ general manager. If there’s one team whose success I want to copy, it's definitely the Jets. That team has been run so well it's no surprise the Dolphins would want a piece of that pie. Add Marrone walking out on the Bills' coaching job - The Bills of course being the one team in the division who looked like they were a couple drafts away from being a serious contender - and you can all but guarantee at least another four years of the Patriots having the division won by week 10.
We have one of a couple of games this weekend where the prevailing story is one team's previous success against the others. The Ravens beat the Patriots in Foxborough a couple of other times, and if you completely ignore the times they got absolutely dusted in the regular season as well as how completely different the rosters are, that might be a great argument. I’m sure a game that opened with a Ray Rice 63 yard touchdown has a lot of similarities to a team that is starting an undrafted rookie free agent at left tackle and whos right guard is starting at right tackle. I’m sure the addition of Revis and Browner mean absolutely nothing to New England's defense in the grand scheme of things. Why look at the teams that are playing this weekend when I can talk to you about (Trigger Warning) Lee Evans dropping a touchdown in the endzone.
Let’s stop living in the past (I say out loud unironically as a Cowboys fan who still has pennants up in his old room at his parents’ house from the 90’s Super Bowls) and focus on this year’s matchups. Baltimore has no offensive line, no secondary, but an absolutely insane front 7. The Patriots as a whole are a far better team, but Baltimore’s pass rush is so insane that it almost makes up for Owen Daniels being a top receiving threat in the Year of our Lord 2015.
When Baltimore got pressure without blitzing, opposing quarterbacks went 15 of 52 for 158 yards, 5 picks, and 32 sacks. For those at home wondering, that is a passer rating of 0.2. Zero. Point. Two. Blaine Gabbert's worst rating in his illustrious career was a 26.7. Imagine watching Gabbert go 10 for 30 with less than a hundred yards and realize that's lightyears above what the Ravens defense has done to quarterbacks. New England’s young offensive line has worked itself into a groove after re-arranging countless times in the beginning of the season, but something about undersized Stork and Wendell dealing with Ngata and McPhee all night does not fill me with a huge amount of confidence.
Baltimore’s secondary is currently Lardarius Webb and three guys I autodrafted in my Madden franchise, so it should come as no surprise that their biggest disadvantage comes from covering throws downfield. The Patriots don’t throw downfield. They don’t have the receivers to challenge defenses deep and Brady probably doesn’t have the arm strength to get the ball there even if they did. As complete of a team as the Patriots are, Baltimore’s pass rush could completely neutralize New England’s offense, and it’s not like Joe Flacco is incapable of having a great playoff performance.
But the Patriots are still going to win. You know it, I know it. We’ve all known it since week 6. It doesn’t matter if they’re down by 40 at the half, they’ll find some way to defy all odds and make it to yet another AFC Championship. The world is a terrible place and good things happen to awful people. Even as a lifelong Cowboys fan I understand that the only reason they won last week was because God decided there wasn’t enough misery in the world, and the site of Jerry Jones’ smiling face as he gives passionate embraces to other old, rich white people was enough to break that last straw on the camel’s back. Patriots win, probably make it to the Super Bowl, and we’re another step closer to Bill Simmons’ wet dream of changing the Lombardi Trophy to the Belichick Trophy to a reality.
Panthers @ Seahawks
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| Look at that passion. You won't find any commitment to the game like that from Scam Newton |
It’s almost impossible to find a way for Carolina to win this game without playing perfect, mistake free football. All jokes about their record aside, Carolina’s game improved significantly at the tale end of the season. They were the annual team who "gets hot at the right time" and makes a playoff run. Their defense played better, they found a running game, and that ability to rely on the run allowed Cam to do more. They’ve improved over the course of the season in virtually every facet, but unfortunately for them, so has Seattle.
Carolina’s defense has come in to form over the past six weeks as a really good defense. Seattle’s has come in to form as a really great one. While Carolina has had more success against Seattle than many other teams, especially in the redzone, they’re going to have to do it without Greg Hardy or Star Lotu…Lotou..Lo..fuck it. Having role players step up and get significant snaps in playoff games against a 1 seed generally doesn’t pan out, especially when those reserve defensive tackles are going against Max Unger.
This is a situation where Carolina not having Philly Brown is unironically a game changer for them. He is the only speed threat on that team, so losing him means losing their only real deep threat. If you don’t understand how important this is, just know that Joe Webb might be active at receiver for this game. Yes, that Joe Webb. The quarterback. Might be taking snaps at receiver. In a playoff game.
Without any fear of getting beat deep, Sherman and Thomas can effectively remove Kelvin Benjamin from the game and the rest of the defense can play underneath, causing Cam to force every single throw into a tight window. I love Cam, but that's not necessarily his strength.
Carolina is outmatched in all three phases. Seattle’s offense, not the rushing powerhouse most of us assumed it will be, is still a nightmare, their defense is otherworldly, and their punt returner doesn’t field kicks from his knees. Combine that with their bullshit canoe stadium, and it’s hard to find a favorable matchup. Much like the Cardinals last week, the Panthers are going to have to play perfect and force Seattle to make a few of their own. If the Panthers want to win, they need a leader at quarterback. I mean, just look at what Old White People on twitter had to say about his performance.
That's exactly what you'd expect from an...ethnic quarterback. Half of Russel Wilson will give Seattle the advantage, but if Carolina starts Derek Anderson at the last second then we could really be in for a ball game.
Colts @ Broncos
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| Pictured: A pile of literal human garbage |
Trent Richardson, who has yet to reach 1000 yards rushing in 2 seasons as a Colt, is practicing on the punt coverage unit in advance of their divisional round matchup against one of the best teams in football. Sometimes, nothing’s funnier than the truth.
The more you look at the players around Andrew Luck, the more it looks like it’s going to be one of those games where he has to have a superhuman performance to pull out a win. It’s not impossible. It was just last year that they were down 28 in the second half and still rallied back to beat the Chiefs in a game that I’m sure still haunts Alex Smith’s dreams. Alex Smith threw for almost 400 yards and they still lost. Imagine ever typing the first half of that sentence.
What makes Andrew Luck’s insane 400 yard games possible is his ability to make plays downfield. The problem here is it’s the same old story for the Colts - it’s late in the year and their offensive line is banged up to shit and back. I’m sure they’re all nice people, but I do not trust them against a Broncos defense with a week of rest. A healthy DeMarcus Ware is a scary thing, and Von Miller lined up against whatever replacement level lineman is lining up at right tackle is even scarier. It’s hard to wait for TY Hilton to get open downfield when the pocket is collapsing in on you from every side on every dropback that lasts longer than “2 Mississippi.”
My gut tells me the Broncos win and win big. But my gut also told me Peyton Manning wouldn’t get picked off twice by Dre Kirkpatrick, a cornerback who could barely keep a 74 year old Terrance Newman off the field, and get blown out in a primetime game against Marvin Lewis and the Bengals so who the fuck knows.
Cowboys @ Packers
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| They're not booing you Tony, they're saying Baguuuuuuuuuuul |
Finally, the game that will give me the soothing release of death.
Rodgers has a slight tear in his calf. The football Gods couldn’t even be kind enough to give him a tear in his planting leg. He’ll still have the same zip on the ball he always does when he buttfucks us by multiple touchdowns. It’s not like it matters. He could get in a terrible car wreck and have that leg amputated. He humbled Detroit like the Iron Sheik with one leg, and their defensive line is terrifying. We don’t have a pass rush to speak of, so he can hop around on one foot all he wants. At the end of the day he’ll still have 5 seconds to wait for Jordy Nelson to put a double move on Sterling Moore and jog into the endzone.
Don’t worry Dallas fans, even if for some reason Rodgers just doesn’t have “it” on Sunday, the Packers can still lean on their run game. If your question to me is “how confident are you in the ability of Nick Hayden and Anthony Hitchens to stop Eddie Lacy” my answer is a hearty laugh, followed by a whimper, and Gronk-spiking my drink on the ground and turning into a blubbering mess of expletives and wails.
I’m not saying a Dallas win is impossible, but touting the “undefeated on the road baby wooooooo!” defense doesn’t fill me with optimism. Yes, Dallas can beat the Titans, Rams, and Jaguars. That’s fantastic. The Packers have the best offense in football and watching Rodgers go up to the line, audible 3 times, and find the exact play to absolutely dismantle whatever formation you lined up in is as soul crushing as anything in sports. Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over at home and the offense as a whole doesn’t stop scoring until they tell Matt Flynn to put a helmet on.
Anything is possible. Maybe Murray can eat up chunks of clock on every drive and limit Rodgers' possession, and seeing Dez Bryant throw up the X multiple times wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world. The Packers are vulnerable across the middle and, as slow as he is, Jason Witten can still make huge plays. It’s just yet another game where one team is going to have to play mistake-free football, and I've watched the Cowboys for a long time. This iteration of the team doesn't seem to have the "quit" in it like so many before it, but I promised myself I wouldn't get fooled again. I’m not waving the white flag, but I’m not thumping my chest and ordering my NFC Championship tickets.
I’ve played it out a hundred times. Sometimes it’s a shootout that goes until the final seconds, sometimes it’s over at halftime. All I ask is that if and when the Cowboys lose, please let it be at the hands an Aaron Rodgers touchdown instead of a Tony Romo interception. I just don’t think my heart can take it.
There you have it. I picked all favorites because I'm a spineless piece of shit who's scared to take risks.
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