It’s finally here, you guys. The final stopgap between you, me, and pitchers and catchers reporting. We just have to suffer through one more stupid, childish, barbaric football game until the countdown to the countdown to 9 months of baseball begins. Get your Phiten necklaces ready.
What a shitty season. This isn't just sour grapes about my own team losing in the playoffs after a certain receiver failed to make a football move while catching a ball, taking 3 steps, having a quick j/o sesh, and extending towards the endzone. This isn't about the fact that my god damn team should be playing in this god damn game. This is about everything that's clouded the season from the draft until right now. We started the season with grown men unironically asking if a gay man playing football will be a distraction that looms over the entire year like a giant gay ghost, haunting all of us super straight dudes like a half-dreamed nightmare gazing from beyond a cracked mirror. We end the season with grown men literally crying on television about deflated balls and Marshawn Lynch daring to not answer respected media members such as Guy In Barrel and Puppet Pals Mitch and Clem.
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| Somewhere in the world someone is photoshopping Marshawn’s head on the fake baby, and that person is the real hero in all of this. |
How did we get here? A gay guy showered with other masculine straight dudes after spending a long day doing guy shit and running into each other and using their big strong man muscles to drag each other to the ground and pin them there in an act of dominance. Then a guy punched his wife. The jury’s still out on which one was worse. Meanwhile, the Patriots were 2-2 and about to move on from Tom Brady any day now, that fahkin loser couldn’t win without Vinatieri anyways. The Seahawks were 3-3 and running Percy Harvin jet sweeps while Marshawn Lynch got single digit carries. Now they’re without a shadow of a doubt the two best teams in football, and neither one can stop talking about how nobody gave them a chance. It’s a showdown of the best in the world and all I care about are Katy Perry’s big stupid tits.
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
The most interesting aspect of the game is the Patriots offense going up against the Seahawks defense. Not to say the inverse is bad, but at the end of the day - unless the game gets out of hand quickly in the Patriots’ favor - Wilson is going to throw somewhere between 20 and 25 times and they’re going to force New England to deal with Lynch steamrolling backpedaling safeties for four unrelenting quarters.
Yes, Brady threw it 58 times when these two teams last played in 2012. That’s great. He also threw touchdowns to Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, neither of which will be on the field on Sunday, so I’m not going to put a bunch of stock in it.
The Patriots have an extremely efficient offense. Some offenses rely on a definitive number 1 receiver who they will go to time and time again, daring you to call just one play with only a single high safety so they can bomb it 60 yards. The Patriots specialize in a short passing attack that relies heavily on Brady’s uncanny ability to diagnose the coverage before the snap and then make a short, safe, accurate throw for a nice chunk of yards. He will identify the pressures and mismatches and make up his mind the second he hikes the ball.
Most teams know blitzing Brady means only certain death and will try to disguise what they’re doing in hopes that the extra second it takes him to identify the rush is enough to either take him down or force a bad throw into coverage. The Seahawks aren’t most teams. They will line up in the same three-deep coverage every quarterback in the NFL has seen since they were playing in grade school and beat you anyways. Because they can. Their players are too fast and too talented. They ranked third against the pass and second against the run, which after years of running various football analytics I have deciphered to infer means they are “Really Good."
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| Did you think we weren't gonna spice up your order with some sizzling Hot Takes? |
A big question I have for the Seahawks is if they would be willing to have Sherman shadow Edelman for the entire game instead of sticking to one side of the field. It’s not unprecedented for them, and eliminating one of the only real receiving threats not named Gronk would go a long way in shutting down such an efficient spread offense. Sherman follows Edelman from outside to the slot, Kam and Gronk collide in a Dragon Ball Z explosion that wipes out all life in the stadium, and Danny Amendola gets hit so hard on a crossing route he turns to dust and blows away into the distant horizon. Somewhere in the world Wes Welker just woke up out of a deep sleep and started holding his head.
The player every Patriots fan is looking forward to taking over the game is James Develin Rob Gronkowksi. Seattle has allowed one touchdown to a tight end in the last 8 games, playoffs included. During that stretch, QBs have a QBR of 27 on passes to tight ends. For perspective, the Titans lost to the Ravens and their ungodly front seven 21-7, and Zach Mettenberger had a QBR of 30. If throwing to the best player on your roster is the equivalent of “was a dumpster fire at LSU even with O’dell Beckham Jr., SEC cornerbacks, and a better offensive line and is even worse now” you might be in for a long day.
If two of your receivers are being covered by two all-pro defensive backs and your other scrappy, gym rat, first-to-the-gym-last-to-leave white receiver collapses like a dying star, that forces you to run against Seattle’s front 7. The Patriots aren’t that great of a running team against teams that aren’t the Colts. If the Seahawks move Michael Bennett inside he’ll be matched up against either an injured Bryan Stork, his replacement, or Dan Connolly. None of these are terrific options if you’re a New England fan or Tom Brady.
The Patriots are going to have to play a perfect game and really attack Jeremy Lane in the slot to effectively move the ball down the field. It also wouldn’t hurt to cross your fingers and hope Earl Thomas or Richard Sherman re-aggravate their injuries. I’m not going to wish for anyone to get hurt, but if you’re in Boston and it’s a 3 point game in the fourth quarter I can’t say I’d be surprised if you start crossing your fingers. We’re all human, only less so when it means your team has a chance to win. As good as Earl Thomas is, his biggest flaw is he’s more of a “shoulder tackler” than a traditional one, meaning he'll try to throw that shoulder right into your chest to send a message. Doing that with a dislocated shoulder is what we in the industry call “not a good idea.” Sure cheering for a player to get hurt is bad, but I'm cheering for a meteor to hit the stadium so who am I to throw stones?
Hawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Like I said before, this matchup isn’t nearly as interesting. Seattle is going to run Lynch again and again, repeatedly and repeatedly. Even if he gets stuffed for 2 yard gains over and over, he’s eventually going to cutback into an open lane and streak down the field, grabbing his dick as he moonsaults into the endzone.
The Seahawks will run it relentlessly, daring one of the eleven players to overpursue so Lynch can either cutback and bullrush that poor, poor free safety or Wilson will keep it and run right past him and make him like look like an idiot in front of a hundred million people. The Patriots are a very well coached defense who as a unit don't make many mental errors. The Seahawks wear you down and exploit mistakes, and the Patriots are the most disciplined team in the league.
The Patriots face a similar “problem” to Seattle in their secondary. They have one of the best corners in football and on the biggest stage of all he’s gonna cover…Doug Baldwin? What a barn burner matchup this is. The immediate reaction for the other side of the field would be Browner on Kearse, who was responsible for not only 4 interceptions, but a game winning touchdown in overtime. Kearse is fast and Browner is a pass interference machine. While it’s very easily to imagine Browner throwing Kearse out of the club 2 yards from the line of scrimmage every play, it’s equally easy to imagine a 40 yard pass interference penalty saving a 3rd and long and taking the wind out of New England’s defense.
So if you put Arrington on Kearse with safety help, that would leave Browner on Luke Willson, which seems like a great idea. Willson is the staple of any good offense: the deceptively fast white guy who somehow gets open in the seam for a long gain while the defensive coordinator throws his clipboard on the ground and angrily mouths “fuck this.” The Pats were 30th in DVOA on throws to tight ends, which is also, as we in the business call it, “only better than the Jets and Bears.” You’ll notice neither of those teams were playing meaningful games in November, much less January. Luke Willson could end up being a huge key factor in a Hawks Super Bowl win. I never thought I would have to type those words.
Prediction
This is a tough one. Neither outcome is terrible appealing to me.
The Patriots win: Brady is the best quarterback of all time. Belichick is the best coach of all time. Bill Simmons is elected president. Josh McDaniels gets to hold a championship trophy and be a head coach somewhere. Gronk spikes the trophy on a parade float. This kid is happy:
The Seahawks win. Russell Wilson thanks God and Bose for giving him the power to win. Al Michaels delivers a heartfelt speech while Marshawn Lynch grabs his dick. Pete thanks the commissioner for investigating if jet fuel is hot enough to melt steel. This kid is happy:
The Pats are gonna have trouble running, which will hurt them in the red zone and leave them in a lot of third and longs. There is little margin for error and one tipped pass could lose them the game. The Seahawks will be able to run the ball when they want and where they want which will lead to several long, time consuming drives and successful red zone trips. Seahawks win a close, low scoring game. Let's call it Seahawks 27 - Patriots 24.
At the end of the day I just hope the game is good. I have no personal stake in any one on any team, so I just want to enjoy the last football game of the season. I'm scared nothing will live up to Lynch and Gronk playing Mortal Kombat. Both teams have their work cut out for them.
Even if the game is great it will still end up being a miserable day. Someone will talk over a huge third down conversion and then hush me during a commercial because they "don't wanna miss the good ones," Katy Perry's big dumb tits will stay trapped in their prison, I'll hear about deflating footballs least 8 times, and Cris Collinsworth will preach to me about one of these teams that came into the year as the favorite to win their respective conference overcoming adversity and expectations. I'll have to look at Bob Kraft's stupid fucking face. Two of the best cornerbacks in this decade of football are going to be wasted on Doug Baldwin and Julian Edelman. I'm going to get stupid drunk. I'm going to listen to my friend say something racist about Richard Sherman that makes me question our friendship. Awful people will be happy. It's going to be terrible. I can't wait.
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